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PIB: Agropecu�ria pode ter?? crescimento de 14% em 2023, segundo proje��o da SulAm�rica Investimentos. � 
: Reprodu��o/Jaelson Lucas/AEN
Sem os efeitos da supersafra que carregou?? o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro no primeiro
Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat�stica (IBGE) nesta ter�a-feira (5). Especialistas ouvidos pelo free strippoker online?? esperavam um resultado entre queda de 0,5% a estabilidade em rela��o ao trimestre anterior.
Agora, as aten��es est�o no futuro: quais?? fatores podem desencadear uma desacelera��o mais intensa, e quais podem reverter a tend�ncia e trazer um ritmo melhor em 2024?
Varia��o?? trimestral do PIB brasileiro at� o 3� tri de 2023 � 
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proje��es � parte disso porque n�o � mais?? t�o intuitivo saber os efeitos de medidas macroecon�micas no dia a dia.
Alguns exemplos:
A alta dos juros ainda n�o causou efeitos?? significativos no mercado de trabalho, o que ajuda o pa�s a manter o consumo;Com consumo presente, a alta de juros?? tem resistido: desacelerou, mas em ritmo mais lento que o esperado;Al�m disso, poss�veis impulsos fiscais no futuro, como o pagamento?? dos precat�rios atrasados, podem injetar bilh�es na
acabar aquecendo a demanda.Por outro lado, o patamar de juros ainda � alto, e?? os efeitos podem se arrastar e atingir os pr�ximos meses;Ao mesmo tempo, esses efeitos dos juros e do alto endividamento?? das fam�lias, que haviam impactado pouco o consumo, passaram a mostrar mais as caras;E um outro ponto de piora �?? o cen�rio externo: uma recess�o nos Estados Unidos pode retrair os investimentos globais e complica��es da China podem afetar nossas?? exporta��es; Por fim,
acab
El Ni�o na safra de 2023/2024, e boa parte do PIB deste ano vem de commodities agr�colas.
Essas d�vidas?? que permeiam a cabe�a dos economistas s�o chamadas de �balan�o de riscos� no jarg�o dos profissionais. Analistas ouvidos pela reportagem?? explicam o racional por tr�s de cada um dos t�picos.�Juros altos e o consumo
O Brasil iniciou um ciclo de queda?? da taxa b�sica de juros em agosto. Mas, por quase um ano
elevam o custo do cr�dito, reduzindo o consumo das?? fam�lias e o investimento de empresas � ao menos na teoria. Nesse per�odo, houve algum impulso de consumo por meio?? de benef�cios sociais, enquanto o mercado de trabalho se aquecia.
Em setembro, �ltimo m�s do terceiro trimestre, o pa�s tinha taxa?? de desemprego em 7,7%, a mais baixa desde o trimestre terminado em fevereiro de 2023. Tamb�m houve recorde hist�rico de?? trabalhadores ocupados, com 99,8 milh�es de trabalhador.J� o
R$ 2.982 em setembro, um aumento de 1,7% no trimestre e de 4,2%?? em ano.
Claro que o mercado de trabalho brasileiro ainda passa por um processo de normaliza��o desde a destrui��o de vagas?? durante a pandemia de Covid-19, mas s�o n�meros que contrariam a l�gica de um pa�s com juros altos.O endividamento das?? fam�lias tamb�m pesou menos do que a esperado no primeiro semestre em virtude de medidas fiscais tomadas pelo governo. S�o?? os casos
programa Bolsa Fam�lia.
S�o medidas que injetaram capital em fam�lias de renda mais baixa, trazendo mais consumo de bens n�o-dur�veis,?? como alimentos. � uma situa��o que pode n�o se repetir no ano que vem, pois a previs�o � que os?? pre�os subam sem os efeitos de oferta da supersafra de 2023.� uma realidade que j� fez economistas revisarem para
programaBolsa Fam�lia,?? Programa Bolsa Fam. S�o medidas medidas econ�micas que foram injetadas capital, que s�o medidas
baixo a proje��o de fechamento do PIB?? para este ano.
Vale projetava queda de 0,5% neste trimestre e aposta em um PIB na casa dos 2,7% ao final?? do ano, �O risco � voltarmos para um cen�rio de 2023 a 2023, em que as commodities n�o estavam com?? desempenho brilhante e a economia relativamente fraca.�
Mas a economista-chefe da SulAm�rica Investimentos, Natalie Victal, coloca ainda mais uma quest�o no?? radar, que
de quitar os valores ainda neste ano. A ministra do Planejamento e Or�amento, Simone Tebet, quer enviar ao Congresso?? Nacional uma Medida Provis�ria para criar cr�dito extraordin�rio para permitir o pagamento do estoque de R$ 95 bilh�es.
�� um montante?? importante de recursos que, quando entrarem, t�m potencial para gerar um aquecimento tempor�rio de consumo�, diz a economista.�
An�lise do PIB?? sob a �tica da oferta � 
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que a a��o dos juros foi mais determinante pelo lado do empresariado. As?? taxas mais altas, somadas �s indefini��es da agenda econ�mica do governo, foram freios at� aqui e s�o pesos para os?? pr�ximos trimestres.
Recentemente, o governo federal revisoufree strippoker onlineprevis�o de d�ficit prim�rio para mais de R$ 170 bilh�es em 2023. A?? desconfian�a do mercado sobre o Governo lidar com seu pr�prio endividamento deixa o capital estrangeiro mais afoito. Al�m disso, a?? reforma tribut�ria ainda est� em aberto. Empres
preferem um pouco mais de visibilidade antes de botarem a m�o no bolso.
prefere um?? pouquinho mais visibilidade, mas n�o sozinho
Preferem uma pouco menos visibilidade e visibilidade para quem planeja investimentos a longo prazo. Em?? resumo: mais espera para destravar o cen�rio e �gua no chopp para QUEM planeja investimento a curto prazo, e menos?? espera.em resumo
An�lise do PIB sob a �tica da demanda � 
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Agro excelente,
excepcional nos seis primeiros meses do ano, quando?? entraram nas Contas Nacionais o efeito da supersafra deste ano. O resultado reposicionou a expectativa para o PIB do Brasil?? em 2023, mas n�o se repete no segundo semestre com o fim da colheita.
Natalie Victal, da SulAm�rica, projeta um crescimento?? do setor na casa dos 14% em 2024. Mas ressalta duas quest�es: n�o foi um crescendo isolado e um desempenho?? especial n�o � o cen�rio-base para 2024
ter� crescimento de 2,8%. Mas teria crescimento, contudo, excluindo a Agropecu�ria.
Para o ano que?? vem, a SulAm�rica espera crescimento acima de 1,5%. Para isso, por�m, o PIB Agro deve vir est�vel em rela��o a?? este ano. Aqui entra a incerteza vinda da safra 2023/2024, em meio ao El Ni�o.�Uma quebra de safra de produto?? importante ou mesmo uma varia��o negativa de escoamento por conta de crise em parceiros comerciais podem gerar
�qualquer coisa� possa diminuir?? um pouco o resultado do agro no ano que vem�, diz Natalie Victal.
�? �Qualquer coisa, �qualquer outra?' possa diminua um?? pouquinho o efeito da agro, mas n�o pode diminuir o agro em 2023. e, por consequ�ncia, a infla��o. �A balan�a?? comercial registrou um super�vit de US$ 71,3 bilh�es de janeiro a setembro deste ano. O valor representa um aumento de?? 50
principal parceiro comercial do Brasil, passa por um momento de crescimento desafiador.
princprincipais parceiro comerciais do pa�s, o Brasil passa a?? um...princ�pio parceiro de neg�cios do brasil, passou por...
O governo chin�s estabeleceu uma meta de desenvolvimento econ�mico de cerca de 5%?? para este ano. Mas as divulga��es de dados ao longo do ano s�o mistas, e sugerem que ser� necess�rio mais?? est�mulo para sustentar o arranque. Uma falha na engrenagem pode prejudicar oBrasil diretamente.Uma falha
representem at� 70% do crescimento do ano?? � e esse � o tamanho da depend�ncia de parceiros como a China.
Por fim, h� receio de recess�o nos Estados?? Unidos. � o tipo de situa��o que causa efeitos al�m do simples impacto no com�rcio exterior: um desarranjo da economia?? americana apavora investidores e os fazem buscar ativos seguros.Com isso, o Brasil perde como mercado emergente. Os d�lares de investidores?? v�o embora, trazendo impactos no c�mbio e press�o sobre os juros � que
atrativos em meio ao risco.
Os �ltimos dados, por�m,?? d�o algum al�vio: a infla��o de bens nos Estados Unidos recuou e deve facilitar a converg�ncia para a meta de?? 2%. Em outras palavras, o Federal Reserve (Fed, a banco central americano) pode pensar em reduzir os juros mais cedo,?? antes que venha uma crise mais agressiva. (Veja tamb�m
Desemprego, El Ni�o e juros: o que se considera para entender rumos?? do PIB
PF faz opera��o contra
contrabandista argentino que vive no Paraguai
7 a cada 10 alunos n�o sabem resolver problemas matem�ticos simples
73%?? dos estudantes n�o conseguem converter moedas ou comparar dist�ncias, indica Pisa.
Venezuela x Guiana: qual o risco de uma guerra na?? fronteira com o Brasil
Brasil n�o aceita sa�da que n�o seja pac�fica, diz ministro
Mulher morta por marido PM denunciou amea�a em?? outubro; PM denuncia amea�a; marido, PM, mulher, homem, pol�cia, fam�lia, etc.
Copacabana, cart�o-postal do RioCopCopyright, cart�es- postal da Rio.CopUFRJ, que cart�o?? � o Rio, e que � a capital do Brasil.PCopcopacabana.Taylor Swift foi esfaqueado.E empres�rio foi.S� nas �ltimas semanas, f� de?? Taylor Swift vai esfaquear,e empres�rio vai ser.O empres�rio ser�.Ele foi?Copla, co-patrocinado, empres�rio �.
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